9334 Fox Creek Dr

Stockton, CA 95210

$525,000D+

12 bd · 8.0 ba · 2,236 sqft · Built 1980 · MultiFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,592/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$964
• Net cashflow: $550/mo
• Annual: $6,605/yr
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.49%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $275/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $459k (12.5% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $459k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $440k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,592/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.