4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,053 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,680/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$353
Net cashflow
$740/mo
Annual
$8,882/yr
Cap rate
16.74%
Cash-on-cash
37.32%
DSCR
2.66
1% rule
1.98%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $60k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HC76WB5W5CB01P
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29