21614 Rockaway Rd

North San Juan, CA 95959

$220,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$209
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $500/yr
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (19.2% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,229 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $220k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.