21614 Rockaway Rd · North San Juan, CA 95959

$220,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a peaceful 1-acre parcel on the San Juan Ridge, this charming property offers space, privacy, and easy access to the best of Nevada County living. The older manufactured home features approximately 980 square feet of comfortable living space, full of potential and natural light, with views of the surrounding landscape and a serene seasonal pond that enhances the property's country appeal. The home also includes a lovely attached deck overlooking the tranquil surroundingsan ideal spot for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. The land enjoys great sun exposure and is dotted with mature fruit trees and established garden areas, making it ideal for those seeking a more

Key facts

• Attached deck
• Mature fruit trees
• Seasonal pond

Tags

• SEASONAL POND
• ATTACHED DECK
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• ESTABLISHED GARDEN AREAS
• STUDIO ADU

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Covered detached parking
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Propane tank owned; Electric service: See Remarks; Septic system; Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Ranchette/Country setting; Single story; Property facing/direction not specified
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Seasonal pond; Garden area; Landscaped front and back yards; Shed(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Appliances listed as 'See Remarks'
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bath and one partial bath; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wall furnace; No cooling
• Interior features: Deck attached to living/family room; Laminate countertops; Carpet and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,229 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $220k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,781 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-33,066
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-25,661
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95959

• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,409/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,725

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2016-02-17
   soldstatus $98,000
2. 1998-07-09
   soldstatus $41,000
3. 1979-11-28
   soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,409 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,672 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$263/yr (+$22/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,409
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$795
• After-tax cash flow: $1,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — North San Juan

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1229
• US rank: #26205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,683
• Household income: $86,524
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 413.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.68%
• Current HPI: 209.775
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+276.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2016-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1979-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,409 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.