7643 SE Sugar Sand Cir

Hobe Sound, FL 33455

$312,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,119 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 205 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$425
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-355/mo
• Annual: $-4,257/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $87,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#497 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hobe Sound Elementary School (math 51% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 459 students, 68% FRL); Murray Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 616 students, 69% FRL); South Fork High School (math 36% / reading 48%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,810 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 41% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 13465% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $312k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Hobe Sound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.