287 Shamblin Run Rd

Clay, WV 25164

$48,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,197/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $580/mo
• Annual: $6,965/yr
• Cap rate: 22.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.75%
• DSCR: 3.57
• 1% rule: 2.49%
• Cash to close: $13,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $263 of equity ($332 loan paydown + $-69 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#267 in WV) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay County Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #41 of 55 in WV (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clay Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #225 of 377 statewide, top 68%, 314 students, 0% FRL); Clay Middle School (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #63 of 109 statewide, top 59%, 413 students, 0% FRL); Clay County High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #91 of 110 statewide, top 85%, 533 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at -39% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.