287 Shamblin Run Rd · Clay, WV 25164

$48,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1993 1.39 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

All offers must be submitted at www. VRMProperties.com * Agents must register as a User, enter the property address, and click on "Start Offer" * This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee) * Plumbing did not hold positive air pressure * Rural setting on 1.93 acres * 3 bed / 2 bath one level home * Seller has no knowledge to condition of well, septic, or overall condition of structures on premises * Seller will not convey or work to retire m/h titles if any still in existence with DMV * Investor offers welcome.

Key facts

• 1.93 acres
• Rural setting
• 1.39 acre lot

Tags

• RURAL SETTING
• 1.93 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Storage; Metal roof

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Insulated windows; 7 total rooms; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#267 in WV) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay County Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #41 of 55 in WV (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clay Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #225 of 377 statewide, top 68%, 314 students, 0% FRL); Clay Middle School (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #63 of 109 statewide, top 59%, 413 students, 0% FRL); Clay County High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #91 of 110 statewide, top 85%, 533 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $263 of equity ($332 loan paydown + $-69 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -39% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.75%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $35,277
• Equity at exit: $13,595

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $84,409
• Equity at exit: $16,071

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25164

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $462

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $48,000 Active
3. 2018-11-02
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$1,038
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $6,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,588
• After-tax cash flow: $5,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400240
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $32,831
• Composite: 23.26/100
• National rank: #7932
• State rank: #41 of 55 in WV

Livability — Clay

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #267
• US rank: #22600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 697

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,860 people
• By 2030: 7,227 · -8.1%
• By 2040: 5,947 · -24.3%
• By 2050: 4,802 · -38.9%
• By 2075: 2,942 · -62.6%
• By 2100: 1,930 · -75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 11% Slovak 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 17.9% · R 80.2% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -52.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+58.2 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 132.9259
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-26.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — KVBOR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $48,000 KVBOR
• 2018-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $323 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.