12931 N 2910 Rd

Hennessey, OK 73742

$98,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 282 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,167/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax + insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $337/mo
• Annual: $4,045/yr
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.74%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $27,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($678 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#32 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Dover (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #356 of 513 in OK (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dover Es (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #479 of 845 statewide, top 63%, 119 students, 0% FRL); Dover Hs (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 52 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Kingfisher County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kingfisher County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $98k implies a 880% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.