17 Gerdon Dr

Altmar, NY 13144

$87,744B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,645/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$460
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $713/mo
• Annual: $8,561/yr
• Cap rate: 16.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.84%
• DSCR: 2.55
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $24,568

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $713 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($607 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,077 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Pulaski Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #377 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pulaski Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 427 students, 54% FRL); Pulaski Middle-High School (math 46% / reading 63%, grade C-, #912 of 1,100 statewide, top 85%, 517 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.4% in Altmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.