17 Gerdon Dr · Altmar, NY 13144

$87,744

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1990 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to your own private retreat with this 2 bedroom, 1980 14x48 single-wide mobile home nestled in a quiet, rural setting on a dead-end road. Surrounded by nature, this property offers the perfect blend of seclusion and comfort for those seeking a peaceful, wilderness lifestyle. This home has seen numerous updates, including a new roof, cabinets and countertops, doors, windows and so much more. Stay cozy year-round with a charming gas fireplace that adds warmth and character to the living space. Outside, you’ll find a spacious 10x12.5 shed—perfect for storage, tools, or hobby space. Set in a scenic environment, this property is ideal for outdoor enthusiasts, hunters, or anyon

Key facts

• Spacious shed
• Quiet rural setting
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• PRIVATE RETREAT
• QUIET RURAL SETTING
• NEW ROOF
• GAS FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS SHED
• SCENIC ENVIRONMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home located at 17 Gerdon Dr, Richland, NY 13144

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $713 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.4% in Altmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,077 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Pulaski Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #377 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($607 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,427 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.84%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $80,859
• Equity at exit: $65,880

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $200,849
• Equity at exit: $130,033

Cash invested: $24,568 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13144

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$460
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,071/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $742

Max offer price $87,744

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $763	-5% $738	+0% $713	+5% $689	+10% $664
Rent	-10% $583	-5% $648	+0% $713	+5% $778	+10% $843
Rate	-1.0pp $758	-0.5pp $736	base $713	+0.5pp $691	+1.0pp $668

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,936
• Closing costs: $2,632
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-30
   listed $87,744 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 19.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,071
• − Insurance: −$439
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − Depreciation: −$2,553
• Taxable income: $7,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,824
• After-tax cash flow: $6,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623880
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,689
• Composite: 43.06/100
• National rank: #3095
• State rank: #377 of 590 in NY

Livability — Altmar

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1077
• US rank: #21658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,105

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.87%
• Current HPI: 275.1966
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $87,744 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,071 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.