10352 Mayo Trail Rd

Catlettsburg, KY 41129

$119,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 942 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-93/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-93/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (19.2% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#187 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Boyd County (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #115 of 165 in KY (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $120k implies a 699% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.2% in Catlettsburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.