6234 Morgan Rd

Point Baker, FL 32570

$88,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,913/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $958/mo
• Annual: $11,500/yr
• Cap rate: 19.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.67%
• DSCR: 3.08
• 1% rule: 2.17%
• Cash to close: $24,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $958 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#735 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jay Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 511 students, 63% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 36% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $88k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 4.2% in Point Baker — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.