6234 Morgan Rd · Point Baker, FL 32570

$88,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1992 10,454 sqft lot Est $103k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

***HIGHEST AND BEST DUE BY 2PM***BACK ON MARKET AT NO FAULT TO THE SELLER**Price drop for quick sale** 1990's Trailer on a quarter acre lot perfect for a rental. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, with new vinyl flooring & kitchen cabinets. HVAC is not working, water heater & roof is newer.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1992
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.24 acre (dimensions 166 x 65)
• Financial info: Buyer financing: Conventional, VA, Other

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Construction complete; Zoned for single-family residential
• Construction: Built in 1992; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Yard building; Property on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling
• Interior features: Single-story layout; Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $958 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 4.2% in Point Baker — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#735 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jay Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 511 students, 63% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 36% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $88k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,680 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.67%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,208
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6260 Buckskin Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (+2%)	10mo	$97,000	$89	78
6452 Appaloosa Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,068 (+0%)	14mo	$104,000	$97	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $46,198
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $116,457
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $658/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $958

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6460 Stewart St Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,500	$1.72	23d	1	0.17mi
6593 Lee St Unit B Milton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	21d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $88,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 268-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $658 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$72/yr (+$6/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$658
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $10,697
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,567
• After-tax cash flow: $8,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Point Baker

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #735
• US rank: #15840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+171.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $95,000 NAMLS
• 2024-11-25 Sold (MLS) $38,000 PARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Pending — PARMLS
• 2024-11-15 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2024-11-05 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $45,000 PARMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $59,900 PARMLS
• 2003-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-07 Sold (MLS) $36,000 PARMLS
• 2003-08-14 Listed $35,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $658 · +498.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.