552 Foggy Brook Loop

Chelsea, AL 35043

$364,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,025 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,871/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$608
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-292/mo
• Annual: $-3,501/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $102,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $287k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Oaks Elementary School (math 44% / reading 63%, grade C, #99 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 683 students, 27% FRL); Chelsea Middle School (math 26% / reading 63%, grade D, #39 of 257 statewide, top 16%, 951 students, 28% FRL); Chelsea High School (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 305 statewide, top 9%, 1,400 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.