552 Foggy Brook Loop · Chelsea, AL 35043

$364,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,025 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 7,405 sqft lot $180/sqft · 10% below area Est $404k · 10% under $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 552 Foggy Brook Loop in our new home community Chelsea Acres located in Chelsea, Alabama. The Clayton is a single-level plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, spanning 2,025 square feet. The kitchen is generously sized and includes a breakfast island, seamlessly connecting to the living room adorned with trey ceilings. Bedroom One is spacious and boasts a luxurious bathroom with a soaking garden tub, separate shower, double vanities, and a sizable walk-in closet. Relax and unwind on the shaded covered patio, perfect for enjoying early morning coffee or peaceful evenings. Additionally, this plan encompasses 3 additional bedrooms, a full bath with a tub/shower, a laundry room, and a 2 car garage, providing ample space and convenience. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builder's warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package! A D. R. Horton Smart Home is equipped with technology that includes the following: a Z-Wave programmable thermostat manufactured by Honeywell; a Z-Wave door lock manufactured by Kwikset; a Z-Wave wireless switch manufactured by Eaton Corporation; a Qolsys, Inc. touchscreen Smart Home control device; an automation platform from Alarm. com; and a SkyBell video doorbell. * Talk to a New Home Sales Agent for details.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Oaks Elementary School (math 44% / reading 63%, grade C, #99 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 683 students, 27% FRL); Chelsea Middle School (math 26% / reading 63%, grade D, #39 of 257 statewide, top 16%, 951 students, 28% FRL); Chelsea High School (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 305 statewide, top 9%, 1,400 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,083 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,162
• List price: $364,900
• Delta: -9.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
292 Halifax Ln	0.14mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (-1%)	2mo	$366,400	$182	82
505 Foggy Brook Loop	0.14mi	4/3.0	1,941 (-4%)	2mo	$359,900	$185	81
291 Halifax Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,164 (+7%)	0mo	$354,900	$164	81
311 Halifax Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-7%)	2mo	$339,900	$180	77
296 Halifax Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-12%)	1mo	$344,900	$194	72
601 Fish Camp Rd	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+12%)	1mo	$424,900	$187	70
614 Fish Camp Rd	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+12%)	2mo	$429,400	$189	69
593 Fish Camp Rd	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+12%)	1mo	$404,900	$178	69
598 Fish Camp Rd	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+12%)	1mo	$429,900	$189	68
728 Empire Ave	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+12%)	2mo	$409,900	$180	65
509 Foggy Brook Loop	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-14%)	2mo	$334,900	$193	64
736 Empire Ave	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,271 (+12%)	2mo	$420,000	$185	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-77,647
• Equity at exit: $54,408

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-91,272
• Equity at exit: $31,550

Cash invested: $102,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35043

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$456 /mo · $5,474/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,240

Max offer price $322,678

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-166	+0% $-292	+5% $-418	+10% $-544
Rent	-10% $-519	-5% $-405	+0% $-292	+5% $-178	+10% $-65
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-199	base $-292	+0.5pp $-386	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,225
• Closing costs: $10,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
283 Halifax Ln Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,950	$1.31	45d	1	0.10mi
24 Autry Dr Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.0	1856	$1,770	$0.95	3d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $364,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $364,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $364,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $364,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $364,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $364,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $364,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $364,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $364,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $364,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $364,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $364,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $364,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $364,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $364,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $364,900 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $364,900 Active 1350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1350 chars)

    Welcome to 552 Foggy Brook Loop in our new home community Chelsea Acres located in Chelsea, Alabama. The Clayton is a single-level plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, spanning 2,025 square feet. The kitchen is generously sized and includes a breakfast island, seamlessly connecting to the living room adorned with trey ceilings. Bedroom One is spacious and boasts a luxurious bathroom with a soaking garden tub, separate shower, double vanities, and a sizable walk-in closet. Relax and unwind on the shaded covered patio, perfect for enjoying early morning coffee or peaceful evenings. Additionally, this plan encompasses 3 additional bedrooms, a full bath with a tub/shower, a laundry room, and a 2 car garage, providing ample space and convenience. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builder's warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package! A D. R. Horton Smart Home is equipped with technology that includes the following: a Z-Wave programmable thermostat manufactured by Honeywell; a Z-Wave door lock manufactured by Kwikset; a Z-Wave wireless switch manufactured by Eaton Corporation; a Qolsys, Inc. touchscreen Smart Home control device; an automation platform from Alarm. com; and a SkyBell video doorbell. * Talk to a New Home Sales Agent for details.

18. 2026-04-11
    price $364,900 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The Clayton is a single-level plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, spanning 2,025 square feet. The kitchen is generously sized and includes a breakfast island, seamlessly connecting to the living room adorned with trey ceilings. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

19. 2026-04-10
    status Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The Clayton is a single-level plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, spanning 2,025 square feet. The kitchen is generously sized and includes a breakfast island, seamlessly connecting to the living room adorned with trey ceilings. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

20. 2026-02-23
    status Pending 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The Clayton is a single-level plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, spanning 2,025 square feet. The kitchen is generously sized and includes a breakfast island, seamlessly connecting to the living room adorned with trey ceilings. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

21. 2026-02-21
    listed $362,400 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The Clayton is a single-level plan with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, spanning 2,025 square feet. The kitchen is generously sized and includes a breakfast island, seamlessly connecting to the living room adorned with trey ceilings. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,440
• − Property taxes: −$5,474
• − Insurance: −$1,824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,756
• − Management: −$2,756
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$10,615
• Taxable loss: −$9,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,369
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelsea, AL
• City population: 15,068
• Population (ZIP): 15,068

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Arabic 4% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.08%
• Current HPI: 205.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $364,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $364,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-23 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $362,400 Greater Alabama MLS