1003 Northfield Dr

Carlisle, PA 17013

$175,900F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$922
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $3/mo
• Annual: $41/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $49,252

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $176k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($41/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (12.7% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#297 in PA, #2,632 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Carlisle Area SD (urban): math 33% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #277 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bellaire El Sch (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,518 statewide, top 68%, 407 students, 62% FRL); Wilson Ms (math 20% / reading 53%, grade F, #307 of 512 statewide, top 61%, 577 students, 52% FRL); Carlisle Area Hs (math 70% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 1,578 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 30% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $176k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.