1003 Northfield Dr · Carlisle, PA 17013

$175,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 912 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1984 3,484 sqft lot Est $125k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION, ONE FLOOR LIVING IN NORTHFIELD WITH NO ASSOCIATION FEES. FULL BASEMENT, STORAGE SHED, OFF STREET PARKING, 2 BDRMS, 1.5 BATHS. QUIKC POSSESSION AVAILABLE.

Key facts

• Built 1984
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Semi-detached home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding and frame construction; Block foundation; Fiberglass/asphalt roof; Built year estimated
• Exterior features: Level lot; Porch(es); Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level; 7 total rooms including living room, dining room, master bedroom and one additional bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 half bathroom on the main level; Total: 1 full, 1 half
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and cooling; Electric heating and cooling; Circuit breaker electrical service; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Combination dining and living area; Screened porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (stacked); Laundry available on main floor and lower floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($41/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#297 in PA, #2,632 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Carlisle Area SD (urban): math 33% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #277 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bellaire El Sch (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,518 statewide, top 68%, 407 students, 62% FRL); Wilson Ms (math 20% / reading 53%, grade F, #307 of 512 statewide, top 61%, 577 students, 52% FRL); Carlisle Area Hs (math 70% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 1,578 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 30% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $176k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,621 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,944
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1033 Northfield Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	912 (0%)	18mo	$164,900	$181	78
412 N West St	0.70mi	2/1.0	876 (-4%)	2mo	$111,000	$127	58
813 Factory St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	962 (+6%)	12mo	$132,000	$137	52
707 N Pitt St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+10%)	12mo	$157,700	$156	39
515 N Pitt St	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+10%)	22mo	$70,000	$70	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-28,975
• Equity at exit: $26,227

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-27,750
• Equity at exit: $15,209

Cash invested: $49,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17013

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$922
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,574/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,532

Max offer price $175,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $53	+0% $3	+5% $-46	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-57	+0% $3	+5% $64	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $48	base $3	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,975
• Closing costs: $5,277
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
525 3rd St Carlisle, PA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,297	$1.80	23d	1	0.38mi
525 3rd St Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,497	$1.58	25d	1	0.38mi
270 B St Carlisle, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0	1028	$1,289	$1.25	15d	3	0.51mi
5 Northside Village Ln Carlisle, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,919	$2.40	15d	6	0.79mi
423 N Hanover St Apt 1 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	25d	1	0.95mi
217 N Hanover St Unit 3 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.5	970	$1,450	$1.49	45d	1	0.97mi
54 W High St Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,180	$1.98	25d	1	1.07mi
50 W High St Unit 203 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,180	$1.98	25d	1	1.07mi
860 Carlwynne Mnr Carlisle, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	787	$1,345	$1.71	15d	15	1.17mi
34 S Hanover St Apt 3, Carlisle, PA 17013 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	25d	1	1.19mi
224 Mulberry Ave Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $175,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $175,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-05-31
   listed $175,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,574 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,677 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,853
• − Property taxes: −$2,574
• − Insurance: −$880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$5,117
• Taxable loss: −$2,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$705
• After-tax cash flow: $746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205010
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,334
• Composite: 38.23/100
• National rank: #4247
• State rank: #277 of 539 in PA

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #2632

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlisle, PA
• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• City population: 62,898
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,513
• Household income: $71,042
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.48%
• Current HPI: 247.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+238.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $175,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-09-26 Sold (MLS) $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-08-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-08-08 Listed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1984-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $51,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,574 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.