421 Sidney St #1

Houston, TX 77003

$349,000C

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,572 sqft · Built 2004 · Townhouse · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,610/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$582
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$758
• Net cashflow: $440/mo
• Annual: $5,280/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lantrip El (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 519 students, 83% FRL); Navarro Middle (math 8% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,639 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 547 students, 98% FRL); Austin H S (math 9% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,530 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,448 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 15 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 18765% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.0% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,610/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.