Ashton II Plan

Royse City, TX 75189

$281,999F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,847 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 824 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,248/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,642
• Tax + insurance: −$522
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-388/mo
• Annual: $-4,659/yr
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $87,678

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 824 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Davis El (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 500 students, 52% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 2102 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 105d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 824 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.