Ashton II Plan · Royse City, TX 75189

$281,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily · 681 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home offers a great layout with a total of four bedrooms. The main living area showcases an open layout among the kitchen with island, dining room and family room, while a flex room offers a variety of uses. The owner's suite enjoys a private bathroom and roomy walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are located toward the front of the home.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Owner's suite

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $281,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $311,592.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1288 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 681 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,298 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 681 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,592
• List price: $281,999
• Delta: -9.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1229 Cedar Cove Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (+2%)	3mo	$250,000	$133	83
3017 Oak Crest Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,864 (+1%)	3mo	$299,999	$161	82
3112 Burwood Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-7%)	2mo	$249,900	$145	75
1213 River Oak Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,960 (+6%)	6mo	$251,000	$128	73
1228 Koto Wood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-13%)	1mo	$269,000	$167	60
124 Sutter Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,958 (+6%)	5mo	$285,000	$146	59
1328 Alder Tree Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,007 (+9%)	7mo	$250,000	$125	55
1217 Acacia Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,996 (+8%)	4mo	$298,490	$150	54
216 Sunny Corner Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,046 (+11%)	6mo	$250,000	$122	44
1017 Whispering Oak Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,097 (+14%)	2mo	$295,000	$141	41
3229 Sunny Hill Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,023 (+10%)	6mo	$285,000	$141	40
1828 Elderberry St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-12%)	2mo	$250,000	$154	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-79,899
• Equity at exit: $46,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-124,513
• Equity at exit: $26,941

Cash invested: $87,246 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1288
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,634
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,674/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,726

Max offer price $259,835

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,898
• Closing costs: $9,348
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3008 Lakewood Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2364	$2,099	$0.89	2d	1	0.04mi
1204 Cedar Cove Pl Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,925	$1.33	24d	1	0.18mi
3105 Oak Crest Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,929	$1.03	22d	1	0.18mi
1328 River Oak Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2196	$2,400	$1.09	3d	1	0.36mi
1309 Honeywood Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,796	$1.19	3d	1	0.39mi
1225 Alder Tree Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	2181	$2,000	$0.92	3d	1	0.45mi
1216 Alder Tree Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,029	$0.90	3d	1	0.48mi
1125 Silver Maple Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,895	$1.19	24d	1	0.52mi
1125 Silver Maple Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,895	$1.31	44d	1	0.52mi
1312 Silver Maple Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1406	$1,695	$1.21	44d	1	0.53mi
1817 Acacia Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2118	$2,000	$0.94	14d	1	0.59mi
3213 Shady River Trl Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,849	$1.00	22d	1	0.61mi
1004 Basswood Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2097	$1,995	$0.95	15d	1	0.62mi
523 Francis Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,299	$1.13	44d	1	0.67mi
1825 Damianita Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1999	$2,100	$1.05	15d	1	0.69mi
2113 Tulipwood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,075	$1.12	2d	1	0.70mi
1828 Elderberry St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,995	$1.05	15d	1	0.71mi
208 Sunny Corner Rd Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$1,695	$0.95	20d	1	0.72mi
2124 Tulipwood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,200	$1.29	19d	1	0.73mi
2128 Whispering Sage Blvd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,400	$1.04	24d	1	0.74mi
2133 Tulipwood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1770	$2,295	$1.30	44d	1	0.75mi
1916 Elderberry St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,059	$1.24	1d	1	0.79mi
2134 Donker Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,950	$1.06	1d	1	0.80mi
2117 Berrywood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,095	$1.23	3d	1	0.81mi
2117 Berrywood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1706	$2,095	$1.23	1d	1	0.81mi
1817 Grassland Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	3d	1	0.81mi
2141 Donker Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,850	$1.01	15d	1	0.82mi
2141 Donker Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,850	$1.01	3d	1	0.82mi
1226 Banyan Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$1,895	$0.95	19d	1	0.85mi
1813 Huisache St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	19d	1	0.85mi
1944 Fox Glove St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	44d	1	0.88mi
3140 Overlook Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,200	$1.18	44d	1	0.88mi
3136 Overlook Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,295	$1.12	44d	1	0.89mi
3136 Overlook Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,295	$1.12	3d	1	0.89mi
1937 Huisache St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1999	$2,350	$1.18	1d	1	0.97mi
1844 Javelina St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,295	$1.33	4d	1	0.97mi
1852 Javelina St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,200	$1.16	21d	1	0.97mi
3000 Buttonbush Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1892	$1,895	$1.00	15d	1	1.04mi
1944 Javelina St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1934	$2,195	$1.13	1d	1	1.05mi
1825 Lotus St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,195	$1.10	3d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,999 Active 681 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,999 Active 680 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,999 Active 679 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,999 Active 678 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,999 Active 676 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,999 Active 672 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,999 Active 671 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $281,999 Active 670 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $281,999 Active 667 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,999 Active 666 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,999 Active 665 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,999 Active 664 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,999 Active 663 DOM
14. 2024-09-28
    price $281,999 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    This single-story home offers a great layout with a total of four bedrooms. The main living area showcases an open layout among the kitchen with island, dining room and family room, while a flex room offers a variety of uses. The owner's suite enjoys a private bathroom and roomy walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are located toward the front of the home.

15. 2024-09-07
    price $278,999 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    This single-story home offers a great layout with a total of four bedrooms. The main living area showcases an open layout among the kitchen with island, dining room and family room, while a flex room offers a variety of uses. The owner's suite enjoys a private bathroom and roomy walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are located toward the front of the home.

16. 2024-08-06
    listed $277,999 Active 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    This single-story home offers a great layout with a total of four bedrooms. The main living area showcases an open layout among the kitchen with island, dining room and family room, while a flex room offers a variety of uses. The owner's suite enjoys a private bathroom and roomy walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are located toward the front of the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,454
• − Property taxes: −$4,674
• − Insurance: −$1,558
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − Depreciation: −$9,065
• Taxable loss: −$9,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,361
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with modern appliances and fresh paint. It offers a good layout with four bedrooms and two bathrooms. The property has a good curb appeal and is ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royse City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838220
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,810
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4197
• State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

Livability — Royse City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #4292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• City population: 48,739
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-28 Price Changed $281,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $278,999 Zillow
• 2024-08-06 Listed $277,999 Zillow