Ashton II Plan · Royse City, TX 75189

$281,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily · 824 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home offers a great layout with a total of four bedrooms. The main living area showcases an open layout among the kitchen with island, dining room and family room, while a flex room offers a variety of uses. The owner's suite enjoys a private bathroom and roomy walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are located toward the front of the home.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Owner's suite

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $281,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,137.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Davis El (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 500 students, 52% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 2102 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 105d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 824 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,780 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 824 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,137
• List price: $281,999
• Delta: -9.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1108 Applegate Way	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+2%)	2mo	$249,500	$133	84
1229 Cedar Cove Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (+2%)	8mo	$250,000	$133	79
3017 Oak Crest Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,864 (+1%)	7mo	$299,999	$161	79
3112 Burwood Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-7%)	6mo	$249,900	$145	71
3125 Hollow Branch Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,858 (+1%)	1mo	$271,000	$146	59
1228 Koto Wood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-13%)	6mo	$269,000	$167	56
709 Darlington Oak Ave	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,088 (+13%)	1mo	$285,000	$136	53
1217 Acacia Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,996 (+8%)	8mo	$298,490	$150	50
2004 Strongbark Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,652 (-11%)	5mo	$252,500	$153	49
1929 Berrywood Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,065 (+12%)	3mo	$294,999	$143	45
1017 Whispering Oak Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,097 (+14%)	7mo	$295,000	$141	37
1828 Elderberry St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-12%)	7mo	$250,000	$154	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-82,024
• Equity at exit: $46,690

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-128,586
• Equity at exit: $27,074

Cash invested: $87,678 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 85 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $294,990 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 100 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 2102
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,642
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,697/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,739

Max offer price $256,956

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-172	-5% $-280	+0% $-388	+5% $-496	+10% $-605
Rent	-10% $-566	-5% $-477	+0% $-388	+5% $-299	+10% $-211
Rate	-1.0pp $-231	-0.5pp $-309	base $-388	+0.5pp $-469	+1.0pp $-552

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,284
• Closing costs: $9,394
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3008 Lakewood Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2364	$2,099	$0.89	143d	1	0.04mi
3008 Lakewood Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2364	$2,099	$0.89	140d	1	0.04mi
1929 Indian Grass Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2106	$2,400	$1.14	1d	1	0.06mi
1929 Indian Grass Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2106	$2,400	$1.14	107d	1	0.06mi
1204 Cedar Cove Pl Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,925	$1.33	165d	1	0.18mi
3105 Oak Crest Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,929	$1.03	163d	1	0.18mi
1501 Applegate Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	99d	1	0.22mi
1221 Koto Wood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1881	$1,645	$0.87	3d	1	0.24mi
1221 Koto Wood Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1881	$1,711	$0.91	7d	1	0.24mi
1217 River Oak Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,850	$1.02	69d	1	0.25mi
1217 River Oak Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,850	$1.03	93d	1	0.25mi
1228 Sweetgum Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1854	$1,709	$0.92	29d	1	0.32mi
1229 Land Oak Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	1893	$2,075	$1.10	65d	1	0.34mi
1328 River Oak Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2196	$2,350	$1.07	127d	1	0.36mi
1300 Land Oak Rd Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1970	$1,895	$0.96	3d	1	0.37mi
1300 Land Oak Rd Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1970	$1,945	$0.99	119d	1	0.37mi
1313 Honeywood Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,700	$1.19	135d	1	0.38mi
1309 Honeywood Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,746	$1.15	140d	1	0.39mi
1309 Honeywood Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,635	$1.08	134d	1	0.39mi
1201 Honeywood Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2077	$1,995	$0.96	125d	1	0.41mi
1608 River Oak Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1801	$1,996	$1.11	134d	1	0.41mi
1312 Honeywood Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,049	$1.46	2d	1	0.42mi
1216 Honeywood Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,679	$1.22	51d	1	0.42mi
709 Darlington Oak Ave Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,499	$1.19	10d	1	0.44mi
1309 Alder Tree Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	1532	$1,836	$1.20	85d	1	0.44mi
1225 Alder Tree Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	2181	$1,950	$0.89	135d	1	0.45mi
1216 Alder Tree Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2260	$1,899	$0.84	104d	1	0.48mi
1817 Berrywood Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,850	$1.32	10d	1	0.48mi
1401 Silver Maple Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	1977	$1,925	$0.97	56d	1	0.50mi
1125 Silver Maple Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,895	$1.31	184d	1	0.52mi
1125 Silver Maple Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,895	$1.19	165d	1	0.52mi
1312 Silver Maple Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1406	$1,695	$1.21	184d	1	0.53mi
1321 Basswood Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,820	$1.16	99d	1	0.55mi
1904 Tulipwood Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,989	$1.38	3d	1	0.56mi
1008 Silver Maple Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,050	$0.98	117d	1	0.56mi
1008 Silver Maple Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,050	$0.98	46d	1	0.56mi
1121 Basswood Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2118	$2,150	$1.02	9d	1	0.58mi
1817 Acacia Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2118	$2,000	$0.94	155d	1	0.59mi
3225 Shady River Trl Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,200	$1.18	10d	1	0.60mi
3213 Shady River Trl Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,849	$1.00	163d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $281,999 Active 824 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $281,999 Active 823 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $281,999 Active 822 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $281,999 Active 821 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $281,999 Active 820 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $281,999 Active 818 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $281,999 Active 817 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $281,999 Active 816 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $281,999 Active 815 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $281,999 Active 814 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $281,999 Active 813 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $281,999 Active 812 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $281,999 Active 811 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $281,999 Active 810 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $281,999 Active 809 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $281,999 Active 808 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $281,999 Active 807 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $281,999 Active 806 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $281,999 Active 805 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $281,999 Active 804 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $281,999 Active 803 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $281,999 Active 802 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $281,999 Active 801 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $281,999 Active 800 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $281,999 Active 799 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $281,999 Active 798 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $281,999 Active 797 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $281,999 Active 796 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $281,999 Active 795 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $281,999 Active 794 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $281,999 Active 793 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $281,999 Active 792 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $281,999 Active 791 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $281,999 Active 790 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $281,999 Active 789 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $281,999 Active 788 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $281,999 Active 787 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $281,999 Active 786 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $281,999 Active 785 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $281,999 Active 784 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $281,999 Active 783 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $281,999 Active 782 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $281,999 Active 781 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $281,999 Active 780 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $281,999 Active 779 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $281,999 Active 778 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $281,999 Active 777 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $281,999 Active 776 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $281,999 Active 774 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $281,999 Active 773 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,541
• − Property taxes: −$4,697
• − Insurance: −$1,566
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − Depreciation: −$9,109
• Taxable loss: −$10,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,235–$27,705 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with modern appliances and fresh paint. It offers a good layout with four bedrooms and two bathrooms. The property has a good curb appeal and is ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Davis El D- TX #1,080/4,322 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 High Royse City H S D- TX #621/1,632 Nat'l #6,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royse City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838220
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,810
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4197
• State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Royse City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #4292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 97,090 people
• City population: 48,739
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-28 Price Changed $281,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $278,999 Zillow
• 2024-08-06 Listed $277,999 Zillow