5405 S Blue Ridge Loop

Pinetop Country Club, AZ 85935

$190,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$37
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $83/mo
• Annual: $996/yr
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($996/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (17.6% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $157k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#105 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #638 of 1,109 statewide, top 58%, 818 students, 60% FRL); Blue Ridge Jr High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #113 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 64% FRL); Blue Ridge High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 669 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $190k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.8% in Pinetop Country Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.