5405 S Blue Ridge Loop · Pinetop Country Club, AZ 85935

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1979 6,098 sqft lot Est $196k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Pinetop Lakes Mobile Homes Bordering Reservation. Carport w/ shed for extra storage. Sigle wide two bedroom, one bath being sold FURNISHED. Laminate floors, wood burn stove. Screened porches front and back. Includes membership to Pinetop Lakes Recreation Center offering, pickle ball, swimming, tennis, pickleball and exercise facility. Close to Pinetop Lakes Golf and Country Club which is open to the public. Executive eighteen hole Golf Course. No sight unseen offers. Seller is a licensed Realtor in the state of Arizona

Key facts

• Shed
• Carport
• Screened porches

Tags

• CARPORT
• SHED
• SCREENED PORCHES
• EIGHTEEN HOLE GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($996/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.8% in Pinetop Country Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#105 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #638 of 1,109 statewide, top 58%, 818 students, 60% FRL); Blue Ridge Jr High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #113 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 64% FRL); Blue Ridge High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 669 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $190k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,526 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,566
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5208 S Blue Ridge Loop	0.14mi	2/2.0	896 (+5%)	7mo	$170,000	$190	75
4335 E Blue Ridge Loop	0.11mi	2/2.0	896 (+5%)	11mo	$200,500	$224	74
5185 S Blue Ridge Loop	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	832 (-3%)	14mo	$229,000	$275	72
5836 Jackrabbit Trl	0.19mi	2/2.0	896 (+5%)	13mo	$235,000	$262	68
5745 Cougar Ct	0.17mi	2/2.0	900 (+5%)	20mo	$200,000	$222	62
5220 S Blue Ridge Loop Unit N	0.13mi	2/2.0	960 (+12%)	13mo	$168,000	$175	58
4325 Merrymead Ct	0.03mi	2/2.0	768 (-10%)	23mo	$180,000	$234	58
4524 Mark Twain Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	940 (+10%)	22mo	$215,500	$229	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,574
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,761
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85935

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,565 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $137	+0% $83	+5% $29	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-41	-5% $21	+0% $83	+5% $145	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $131	base $83	+0.5pp $34	+1.0pp $-16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $190,000 Active
3. 2022-07-15
   soldstatus $95,000
4. 2021-12-23
   soldstatus $55,000
5. 2001-10-04
   soldstatus $70,000
6. 1994-10-03
   soldstatus $42,500
7. 1993-08-19
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$762/yr (+$64/mo · 155.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,503
• − Management: −$1,503
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$547
• After-tax cash flow: $1,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Pinetop Country Club

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #14564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinetop Country Club, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 4,744

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Native American 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% French 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.71%
• Current HPI: 391.0283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+375.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $190,000 WMMLS
• 2022-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1993-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $492 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.