3263 Hidden Gold

Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$339,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,139/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$1,110
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-425/mo
• Annual: $-5,101/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (7.4% below list).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.