3263 Hidden Gold · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$339,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2016 6,141 sqft lot $336/sqft · 13% below area Est $391k · 13% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Sea Glass House! This charming 2-bedroom 2-bath beach house in Lafittes Landing in Crystal Beach is situated on a cul-de-sac lot with an ample driveway with plenty of covered & uncovered parking, plus convenient beach access is only a golf cart ride away! Inside, discover a gorgeous fully furnished open floor plan with abundant natural light, a stunning color scheme with quartz countertops, beautiful brushed nickel finishes, coastal ceiling fans, recessed lights, & spacious bedrooms with private full bathrooms attached. The home is pre-wired for a lift if the buyer dreams of adding one in the future. On the bottom floor is a great space for entertaining with privacy walls, an outdoor bar, a removable firepit, a fish cleaning station, & a private outdoor shower after fun days at the beach. Also note the separate storage building with AC & additional side storage. Whether you are looking for a vacation home, investment property, or primary home – this one is perfect!

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Outdoor bar
• Open floor plan

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE FULL BATHROOMS
• OUTDOOR BAR
• REMOVABLE FIREPIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,909 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,036
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -13.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3271 Hidden Gold	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+3%)	6mo	$325,900	$313	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-81,613
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-104,332
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 774
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,601/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,677

Max offer price $263,909

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-329	+0% $-425	+5% $-521	+10% $-617
Rent	-10% $-673	-5% $-549	+0% $-425	+5% $-301	+10% $-177
Rate	-1.0pp $-254	-0.5pp $-339	base $-425	+0.5pp $-513	+1.0pp $-602

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3229 Castle Dr Unit 1353849P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$3,035	$2.14	7d	1	0.08mi
1714 Texas 87 Unit 1252629P Port Bolivar, TX	3.0	2.0	1345	$4,393	$3.27	0d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-02-13
    listed $339,000 Active 1016-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

    Welcome to the Sea Glass House! This charming 2-bedroom 2-bath beach house in Lafittes Landing in Crystal Beach is situated on a cul-de-sac lot with an ample driveway with plenty of covered & uncovered parking, plus convenient beach access is only a golf cart ride away! Inside, discover a gorgeous fully furnished open floor plan with abundant natural light, a stunning color scheme with quartz countertops, beautiful brushed nickel finishes, coastal ceiling fans, recessed lights, & spacious bedrooms with private full bathrooms attached. The home is pre-wired for a lift if the buyer dreams of adding one in the future. On the bottom floor is a great space for entertaining with privacy walls, an outdoor bar, a removable firepit, a fish cleaning station, & a private outdoor shower after fun days at the beach. Also note the separate storage building with AC & additional side storage. Whether you are looking for a vacation home, investment property, or primary home – this one is perfect!

16. 2026-02-12
    historical
17. 2025-09-25
    listed $369,000 Active
18. 2025-09-25
    historical
19. 2025-06-18
    price $369,000
20. 2025-03-18
    listed $387,000 Active
21. 2025-03-05
    historical
22. 2024-08-02
    listed $410,000 Active
23. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2021-12-06
    soldstatus
25. 2021-10-23
    status Pending, Continue to Show
26. 2021-10-08
    price $349,900
27. 2021-08-21
    listed $359,900 Active
28. 2017-09-14
    historical
29. 2017-03-09
    price $205,000
30. 2016-12-02
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,601 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,204 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,602/yr (+$217/mo · 72.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$3,601
• − Insurance: −$9,723
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,014
• − Management: −$3,014
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$10,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,576
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+69.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $369,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $369,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $387,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-02 Listed $410,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-08 Price Changed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-21 Listed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2017-09-14 Delisted — Galveston MLS
• 2017-03-09 Price Changed $205,000 Galveston MLS
• 2016-12-02 Listed $200,000 Galveston MLS

Property tax history

+39.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,601 · -31.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.