412 Hilltop Rd

Noel, MO 64854

$149,998C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-131/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $41,999

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-131/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (25.6% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#596 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Mcdonald County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #192 of 324 in MO (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in McDonald County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McDonald County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.