412 Hilltop Rd · Noel, MO 64854

$149,998

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Other public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1930 4.60 ac lot $115/sqft · 14% below area Est $174k · 14% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a beautiful property with a house that's a diamond in the rough has a new roof in the last 3 years and has great bones!The land is as pretty as it comes as well as functional has around 3 acres of flat land with some of the best soil in the country. Great place to start a hobby farm!

Key facts

• Best soil
• 3 acres of flat land
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• 3 ACRES OF FLAT LAND
• BEST SOIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-131/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#596 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Mcdonald County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #192 of 324 in MO (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in McDonald County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• McDonald County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,606 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,798
• List price: $149,998
• Delta: -13.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $43,924
• Equity at exit: $95,766

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $129,245
• Equity at exit: $174,950

Cash invested: $41,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64854

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $522/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,130

Max offer price $148,072

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,998 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,998 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,998 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,998 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,998 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,998 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,998 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,998 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,998 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,998 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,998 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,998 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,998 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,998 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,998 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    price $149,998 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    This is a beautiful property with a house that's a diamond in the rough has a new roof in the last 3 years and has great bones!The land is as pretty as it comes as well as functional has around 3 acres of flat land with some of the best soil in the country. Great place to start a hobby farm!

17. 2026-03-23
    price $198,999 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    This is a beautiful property with a house that's a diamond in the rough has a new roof in the last 3 years and has great bones!The land is as pretty as it comes as well as functional has around 3 acres of flat land with some of the best soil in the country. Great place to start a hobby farm!

18. 2026-02-26
    price $215,000 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    This is a beautiful property with a house that's a diamond in the rough has a new roof in the last 3 years and has great bones!The land is as pretty as it comes as well as functional has around 3 acres of flat land with some of the best soil in the country. Great place to start a hobby farm!

19. 2026-02-06
    price $225,000 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    This is a beautiful property with a house that's a diamond in the rough has a new roof in the last 3 years and has great bones!The land is as pretty as it comes as well as functional has around 3 acres of flat land with some of the best soil in the country. Great place to start a hobby farm!

20. 2026-01-13
    listed $250,000 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    This is a beautiful property with a house that's a diamond in the rough has a new roof in the last 3 years and has great bones!The land is as pretty as it comes as well as functional has around 3 acres of flat land with some of the best soil in the country. Great place to start a hobby farm!

21. 2025-12-04
    soldstatus
22. 2011-01-03
    soldstatus
23. 2009-04-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $522 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,455 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$933/yr (+$78/mo · 178.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$522
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$669
• After-tax cash flow: $538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcdonald County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2920610
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,301
• Composite: 31.28/100
• National rank: #6017
• State rank: #192 of 324 in MO

Livability — Noel

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #21033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,867

Population outlook (McDonald County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,753 people
• By 2030: 21,154 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 19,946 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 18,666 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 16,201 · -25.5%
• By 2100: 14,550 · -33.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 23% Pacific Islander 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 11%

Political lean MEDSL · McDonald

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+66.6 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+48.3 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.16%
• Current HPI: 155.1317
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $149,998 SOMO
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $198,999 SOMO
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $215,000 SOMO
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $225,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-13 Listed $250,000 SOMO
• 2025-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $522 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.