16305 Osceola Trl

Oklahoma City, OK 73013

$220,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,367 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,782/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-653/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-653/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (19.0% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $178k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Edmond (suburban): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #11 of 270 in OK (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Angie Debo Es (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #255 of 845 statewide, top 35%, 579 students, 0% FRL); Santa Fe Hs (math 36% / reading 52%, grade F, #18 of 447 statewide, top 4%, 2,796 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 22% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.