4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,333 sqft ·
Built 1996
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 340 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,114/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,442
Tax + insurance
−$206
HOA
−$15
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$444
Net cashflow
$7/mo
Annual
$81/yr
Cap rate
6.32%
Cash-on-cash
0.11%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$77,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($81/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (23.1% below list).
It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $211k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#317 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Pine Hills Elementary (math 21% / reading 20%, grade F, #2,094 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 669 students, 83% FRL); Maynard Evans High (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #562 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 2,417 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $83k; list at $275k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Pine Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,114/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 4039% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HE4ZHP7Y1G55FQ
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29