2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,152 sqft ·
Built 1971
· Manufactured
· Active
· 149 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,513/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$288
Tax + insurance
−$38
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$318
Net cashflow
$869/mo
Annual
$10,426/yr
Cap rate
25.25%
Cash-on-cash
67.70%
DSCR
4.01
1% rule
2.75%
Cash to close
$15,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $869 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in OR, #2,680 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-.
Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $14k; list at $55k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 3.9% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HE63PEEX782CFP
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29