785 The Strand

East Marion, NY 11939

$1,545,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,993 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,226/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,102
• Tax + insurance: −$1,120
• HOA: −$700
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,778
• Net cashflow: $526/mo
• Annual: $6,317/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $432,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.54M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.32M (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.32M (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oysterponds Elementary School (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 80 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Oysterponds Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $433k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$104k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.