1406 Brunswick Ave Ave

Trenton, NJ 08638

$289,999C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · Built 1915 · SingleFamily · Pending · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,672/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $175/mo
• Annual: $2,098/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.58%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (7.9% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Columbus Elementary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,235 of 1,303 statewide, top 96%, 296 students, 74% FRL); Dunn Middle School (math 2% / reading 19%, grade F, #424 of 431 statewide, top 98%, 670 students, 60% FRL); Trenton Central High School - Main Campus (math 2% / reading 10%, grade F, #396 of 399 statewide, top 99%, 2,255 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 80% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $290k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,672/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1185% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.