4838 Trace Dr Unit TRA4838

Fort Wayne, IN 46816

$22,400D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,167/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$117
• Tax + insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $767/mo
• Annual: $9,208/yr
• Cap rate: 47.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 146.82%
• DSCR: 7.53
• 1% rule: 5.21%
• Cash to close: $6,272

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $22k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $155 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $672 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• East Allen County Schools (suburban): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #122 of 301 in IN (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prince Chapman Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #834 of 994 statewide, top 84%, 793 students, 86% FRL); Paul Harding Jr High School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #279 of 330 statewide, top 86%, 430 students, 88% FRL); New Haven Jr/Sr High School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #263 of 369 statewide, top 72%, 1,494 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the East Allen County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 47.4% vs local median 4.7% in Fort Wayne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.