4838 Trace Dr Unit TRA4838 · Fort Wayne, IN 46816

$22,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as community events, a playground, , and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 22 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 47.4% vs local median 4.8% in Fort Wayne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• East Allen County Schools (suburban): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #122 of 301 in IN (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prince Chapman Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #834 of 994 statewide, top 84%, 793 students, 86% FRL); Paul Harding Jr High School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #279 of 330 statewide, top 86%, 430 students, 88% FRL); New Haven Jr/Sr High School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #263 of 369 statewide, top 72%, 1,494 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the East Allen County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $155 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $672 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $22,064 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 146.82%
• DSCR: 7.53
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.22×
• Total profit: $45,261
• Equity at exit: $3,340

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.33×
• Total profit: $102,417
• Equity at exit: $1,937

Cash invested: $6,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46816

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$117
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$28 /mo · $336/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $196

Max offer price $22,400

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $783	-5% $775	+0% $767	+5% $760	+10% $752
Rent	-10% $675	-5% $721	+0% $767	+5% $813	+10% $860
Rate	-1.0pp $779	-0.5pp $773	base $767	+0.5pp $762	+1.0pp $756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,600
• Closing costs: $672
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $22,400 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $22,400 Active 388-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,255
• − Property taxes: −$336
• − Insurance: −$112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$652
• Taxable income: $9,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,259
• After-tax cash flow: $6,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1802850
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,524
• Composite: 35.75/100
• National rank: #4849
• State rank: #122 of 301 in IN

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Wayne, IN
• County: Allen County · 326,813 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 19,514
• Household income: $45,343
• Rent vs Own: 45.5% rent · 54.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 921.0

Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 30% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Philippines, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 16% Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.64%
• Current HPI: 279.9884
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B