4429 E Mercer Way

Mercer Island, WA 98040

$1,649,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,920 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,949/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,648
• Tax + insurance: −$1,517
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,249
• Net cashflow: $-5,465/mo
• Annual: $-65,577/yr
• Cap rate: 2.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.20%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.36%
• Cash to close: $461,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.65M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-66k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $684k (58.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $595k (63.9% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.62M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $595k (63.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $-4k appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#154 in WA, #3,481 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Mercer Island School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #1 of 291 in WA (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mercer Island High School (1,524 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 6% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $850k; list at $1.65M implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 1.0% in Mercer Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($219k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.