4429 E Mercer Way · Mercer Island, WA 98040

$1,649,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1983 0.40 ac lot $565/sqft · 23% below area Est $2131k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Privately positioned at the end of a quiet drive, this Northwest Contemporary home offers privacy, views, and flexible living just minutes from both Seattle and Bellevue. Elevated above the surrounding landscape, the home captures sweeping outlooks of Lake Washington, the Cascades, and surrounding evergreens—bringing light, openness, and a true Pacific Northwest feel to everyday living. Fresh interior paint, new carpet, and a refreshed kitchen create a move-in ready experience while maintaining the home’s architectural character. Expansive windows, hardwood floors, and multiple fireplaces anchor warm, inviting gathering spaces designed for both daily living and entertaining. A s

Key facts

• Sweeping outlooks
• Primary suite
• Recent renovation

Tags

• SWEEPING OUTLOOKS
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• RECENT RENOVATION
• PRIMARY SUITE
• FULL-TIME BACKUP GENERATOR
• MULTIPLE OUTDOOR LIVING AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-15; Lot approximately 0.4015 acres; Site features include lot number 6
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water (City of Mercer Island); Sewer connected (City of Mercer Island); Electric and natural gas power sources (Puget Sound Energy)
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels with finished daylight basement; Main entry on main level; East-facing; Has view; Built on lot; Very good condition
• Construction: Wood construction; Shake roof; Poured concrete foundation; Built on lot
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Shop; Secluded setting; Dead-end street; Paved access; Wooded lot; Gas available

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (1 on main level, 1 upper, 2 lower)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 2 three-quarter baths; 1 bathtub; 3 showers
• Heating & cooling: High-efficiency (90%+) heating; Forced air; Heat pump; Ductless system; Stove/free-standing heating; Cooling via heat pump
• Interior features: Built-in vacuum; Dining room; Fireplaces (3); Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.65M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-66k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $684k (58.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $595k (63.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $595k (63.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 1.0% in Mercer Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#154 in WA, #3,481 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Mercer Island School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #1 of 291 in WA (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mercer Island High School (1,524 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 6% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 128 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($219k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $-4k appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.62M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $850k; list at $1.65M implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $594,912 (63.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.20%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 23.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,131,321
• List price: $1,649,000
• Delta: -15.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5019 E Mercer Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,940 (+1%)	5mo	$1,635,000	$556	67
9724 Mercerwood Dr	0.49mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,940 (+1%)	8mo	$1,630,000	$554	64
16 Wembley Ln	0.66mi	4/3.5	2,840 (-3%)	1mo	$1,750,000	$616	62
9222 SE 46th St	0.23mi	4/2.5	3,270 (+12%)	11mo	$2,425,000	$742	58
5 Wembley Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,904 (-0%)	11mo	$1,650,000	$568	58
4400 East Mercer Way	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,590 (-11%)	9mo	$6,225,000	$2,403	58
4630 88th Ave SE	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,550 (-13%)	3mo	$1,723,888	$676	53
9027 SE 50th St	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,100 (+6%)	2mo	$1,925,000	$621	52
4755 Fernridge Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,540 (-13%)	12mo	$1,850,000	$728	46
3905 96th Ave SE	0.71mi	4/3.0	3,260 (+12%)	2mo	$2,055,000	$630	46
3930 95 Ct SE	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,300 (+13%)	10mo	$2,300,000	$697	37
4728 86th Ave SE	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,320 (+14%)	10mo	$1,550,000	$467	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.25% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-430,865
• Equity at exit: $457,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-687,395
• Equity at exit: $534,025

Cash invested: $461,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98040

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 23.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,648
• Tax from tax record: −$830 /mo · $9,959/yr
• Insurance: −$687
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,249
• Net cashflow: $-5,465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,867

Max offer price $683,626

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,531	-5% $-4,998	+0% $-5,465	+5% $-5,931	+10% $-6,398
Rent	-10% $-5,935	-5% $-5,700	+0% $-5,465	+5% $-5,230	+10% $-4,995
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,634	-0.5pp $-5,045	base $-5,465	+0.5pp $-5,892	+1.0pp $-6,327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $412,250
• Closing costs: $49,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4701 84th Ave SE Mercer Island, WA	4.0	2.5	2945	$7,500	$2.55	0d	1	0.77mi
4134 Island Crest Way Mercer Island, WA	4.0	1.5	2000	$4,890	$2.44	3d	1	0.78mi
3026 90th Pl SE Mercer Island, WA	5.0	4.0	4120	$10,900	$2.65	44d	1	1.26mi
11105 SE 59th St Bellevue, WA	5.0	4.0	2590	$3,999	$1.54	18d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,649,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $1,649,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,798,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,798,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $1,798,000 Active
15. 2014-02-26
    soldstatus $850,000 Sold
16. 2014-02-26
    soldstatus $850,000
17. 2014-01-30
    status Pending
18. 2014-01-20
    status Pending Inspection
19. 2014-01-18
    listed $850,000 Active
20. 2012-01-30
    soldstatus $615,000 Sold
21. 2012-01-30
    soldstatus $615,000
22. 2012-01-06
    status Pending
23. 2011-12-27
    status Pending Inspection
24. 2011-12-01
    price $644,950
25. 2011-10-18
    price $664,950
26. 2011-09-15
    price $699,950
27. 2011-08-22
    listed $719,950 Active
28. 1992-06-12
    soldstatus $310,000
29. 1988-06-06
    soldstatus $213,000
30. 1984-12-28
    soldstatus $172,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,959 · $830/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,160 · $1,347/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,201/yr (+$517/mo · 62.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥87°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$92,370
• − Property taxes: −$9,959
• − Insurance: −$8,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,711
• − Management: −$5,711
• − Depreciation: −$47,971
• Taxable loss: −$98,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$23,659
• After-tax cash flow: $-41,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercer Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5304980
• Math proficiency: 83% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $124,902
• Composite: 79.53/100
• National rank: #97
• State rank: #1 of 291 in WA

Livability — Mercer Island

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #3481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercer Island, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 25,307
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 25,307
• Household income: $219,069
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 22% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Chinese 9% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Current HPI: 323.6615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+855.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $1,649,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-26 Sold (MLS) $850,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-18 Listed $850,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $615,000 Public Records
• 2012-01-30 Sold (MLS) $615,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-01 Price Changed $644,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-18 Price Changed $664,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-15 Price Changed $699,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-22 Listed $719,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 1988-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $213,000 Public Records
• 1984-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $172,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,959 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.