5790 Marina Dr

Sebastian, FL 32958

$200,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Active · 265 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,153/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $252/mo
• Annual: $3,024/yr
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in FL, #1,421 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Island Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 343 students, 70% FRL); Storm Grove Middle School (math 54% / reading 55%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,020 students, 50% FRL); Sebastian River High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,843 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 8991% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.3% in Sebastian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.