7129 Kayak Dr

Payne Springs, TX 75156

$155,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-111/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-111/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (12.0% below list).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.