7129 Kayak Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 3,267 sqft lot $151/sqft · at area comps Est $156k · at est. $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just walking distance to Cedar Creek Lake!

Key facts

• New construction
• Modern finishes
• Functional layout

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• MODERN FINISHES
• RECREATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-111/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,401
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -0.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
348 N Cherokee Shores Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (+5%)	5mo	$160,000	$148	60
358 N Cherokee Shores Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (+5%)	5mo	$165,000	$152	58
208 N Cherokee Shores Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (+15%)	3mo	$74,415	$63	56
7972 Double Bridge Rd	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,161 (+13%)	12mo	$77,000	$66	40
102 Mustang Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	961 (-6%)	14mo	$168,000	$175	40
120 W Quanah Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-7%)	24mo	$145,000	$151	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-29,672
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-41,925
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,376

Max offer price $153,665

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $44	+0% $-9	+5% $-63	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-63	+0% $-9	+5% $45	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $30	base $-9	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.79mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 687-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    price $155,000 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Affordable New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just walking distance to Cedar Creek Lake!

18. 2026-05-16
    price $145,000 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Affordable New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just walking distance to Cedar Creek Lake!

19. 2026-05-15
    price $155,000 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just minutes away!!!

20. 2026-04-10
    price $159,900 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just minutes away!!!

21. 2026-04-10
    price $159,900 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just minutes away!!!

22. 2026-02-24
    price $169,900 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just minutes away!!!

23. 2026-02-24
    price $169,900 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just minutes away!!!

24. 2026-01-16
    listed $174,900 Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just minutes away!!!

25. 2026-01-13
    listed $174,900 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Affordable New construction home offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a one-car garage. Designed with efficiency and comfort in mind, this home features a functional layout and modern finishes throughout. Located in close proximity to Cedar Creek Lake, this property is ideal for those who enjoy lake living, fishing, boating, or weekend getaways while still having the convenience of nearby amenities. The builder is providing a builder’s warranty, offering added peace of mind for the new owner. This is a great opportunity to own an affordable, brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities just walking distance to Cedar Creek Lake!

26. 2025-12-02
    historical
27. 2025-11-03
    price $172,000
28. 2025-07-25
    price $174,000
29. 2025-06-02
    listed $175,000 Active
30. 2025-02-20
    historical
31. 2024-10-11
    price $189,000
32. 2024-08-07
    price $193,000
33. 2024-06-02
    price $199,800
34. 2024-04-24
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with new construction and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and ideal for those seeking a brand-new home in a growing area with recreational opportunities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install new light fixtures — Modern light fixtures improve aesthetics and functionality
• Both Add decorative molding — Decorative molding can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior design
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — New outdoor lighting improves safety and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new light fixtures — Modern light fixtures improve aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Add decorative molding — Decorative molding can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior design ↑
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — New outdoor lighting improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $155,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $159,900 GTAR
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $169,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-16 Listed $174,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $172,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $174,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $193,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-02 Price Changed $199,800 NTREIS
• 2024-04-24 Listed $205,000 NTREIS