817 Tenth St

Shenandoah, VA 22849

$235,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,237
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $53/mo
• Annual: $640/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $66,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($640/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (21.5% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $185k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#304 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Luray Elementary (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #933 of 1,108 statewide, top 86%, 475 students, 88% FRL); Luray Middle (math 42% / reading 66%, grade B-, #205 of 342 statewide, top 61%, 319 students, 77% FRL); Luray High (math 37% / reading 77%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 499 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 45% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $236k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Shenandoah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.