817 Tenth St · Shenandoah, VA 22849

$235,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1976 0.28 ac lot Est $182k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR APPOINTMENT. GREAT GARAGE DETACHED AND NICE LOCALL ED FOR DETAILS

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Stone fireplace
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CUL-DE-SAC
• GENEROUS LOT
• STONE FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($640/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Shenandoah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#304 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Luray Elementary (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #933 of 1,108 statewide, top 86%, 475 students, 88% FRL); Luray Middle (math 42% / reading 66%, grade B-, #205 of 342 statewide, top 61%, 319 students, 77% FRL); Luray High (math 37% / reading 77%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 499 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 45% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $236k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $185,075 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,000
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
817 Tenth St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$233,000	$233	99
910 Carol Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,004 (+0%)	10mo	$205,500	$205	68
710 Denver Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	984 (-2%)	16mo	$159,000	$162	61
1004 Junior Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,046 (+5%)	21mo	$180,000	$172	46
330 Quincy Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+12%)	14mo	$249,900	$223	43
513 Eighth St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+14%)	16mo	$208,000	$182	41
585 Massanutten Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	884 (-12%)	19mo	$154,000	$174	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-34,936
• Equity at exit: $35,173

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-26,486
• Equity at exit: $20,396

Cash invested: $66,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22849

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,237
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $880/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,783

Max offer price $235,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $120	+0% $53	+5% $-13	+10% $-80
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $-20	+0% $53	+5% $126	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $113	base $53	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,975
• Closing costs: $7,077
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   listed $235,900 Active
3. 2002-07-31
   soldstatus $90,500 69-char remark

   Show marketing remark (69 chars)

   FOR APPOINTMENT. GREAT GARAGE DETACHED AND NICE LOCALL ED FOR DETAILS

4. 2002-07-31
   soldstatus $90,500

   Show marketing remark (69 chars)

   FOR APPOINTMENT. GREAT GARAGE DETACHED AND NICE LOCALL ED FOR DETAILS

5. 2002-06-07
   listed $93,500 69-char remark

   Show marketing remark (69 chars)

   FOR APPOINTMENT. GREAT GARAGE DETACHED AND NICE LOCALL ED FOR DETAILS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $880 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,934 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,054/yr (+$88/mo · 119.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,214
• − Property taxes: −$880
• − Insurance: −$1,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − Depreciation: −$6,863
• Taxable loss: −$3,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$835
• After-tax cash flow: $1,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #10921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,291

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.38%
• Current HPI: 216.3367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+152.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — HRAR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $235,900 HRAR
• 2002-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
• 2002-07-31 Sold (MLS) $90,500 HRAR
• 2002-06-07 Listed $93,500 HRAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $880 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.