3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,285 sqft ·
Built 1995
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 14 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,307/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$257
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$485
Net cashflow
$334/mo
Annual
$4,003/yr
Cap rate
8.00%
Cash-on-cash
6.08%
DSCR
1.27
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$65,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (1.8% below list).
Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $231k (1.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#848 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Pleasant Hill Elementary School (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 59% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 1,295 students, 75% FRL); Poinciana High School (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #470 of 667 statewide, top 71%, 2,455 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1296 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $100k; list at $235k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Campbell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HF6PN88G9E15M3
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29