19921 Villa Ridge Dr #203

Lake Buena Vista, FL 32821

$200,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 967 sqft · Built 2002 · Condo · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,609/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-111/mo
• Annual: $-1,335/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $594 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#286 in FL, #4,706 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment F, housing F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tangelo Park Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 457 students, 83% FRL); Freedom Middle (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,159 students, 44% FRL); Freedom High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,623 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12400% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $200k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.