19921 Villa Ridge Dr #203 · Lake Buena Vista, FL 32821

$200,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 967 sqft · Condo public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2002

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 1BR/1BA Condo with ATTACHED GARAGE in the Gated Mirabella Community! This oversized one-bedroom condo offers nearly 1,000 sq ft of comfortable living space and features a highly desirable private attached 1-car garage — a rare find in Mirabella — complete with generous storage space for added convenience and functionality. Inside, you’ll find stylish vinyl flooring throughout, an open-concept floor plan filled with natural light, a fully equipped kitchen, and your own in-unit washer and dryer. The SPACIOUS LAYOUT creates a seamless flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the home feel both inviting and functional. Located in the sought-after gated M

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Attached garage

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE ATTACHED GARAGE
• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• PICNIC AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fees); HOA amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground; Association fee includes pool and trash; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Security: Gated community (association amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential condominium; Completed condition; Faces west; One level (unit in a 2-story building); Condo land included
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.2-acre lot
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (located on floor 2)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room and dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#286 in FL, #4,706 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment F, housing F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tangelo Park Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 457 students, 83% FRL); Freedom Middle (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,159 students, 44% FRL); Freedom High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,623 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $594 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12400% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $200k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $160,901 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.3% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,821
• Equity at exit: $61,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,706
• Equity at exit: $75,823

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32821

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,609 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,003/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $180,345

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-55	+0% $-111	+5% $-168	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-175	+0% $-111	+5% $-48	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-60	base $-111	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8813 Villa View Cir #204 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$1,775	$1.65	25d	1	0.05mi
8801 Villa View Cir #202 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	967	$1,700	$1.76	6d	1	0.05mi
8813 Villa View Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,735	$1.58	16d	2	0.05mi
8813 Villa View Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,660	$1.51	9d	2	0.05mi
19901 Villa Tuscany Way Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	967	$1,600	$1.65	19d	1	0.11mi
19901 Villa Tuscany Way Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	745	$1,500	$2.01	25d	1	0.11mi
8848 Villa View Cir Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	765	$1,550	$2.03	5d	1	0.12mi
8848 Villa View Cir #203 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	765	$1,550	$2.03	12d	1	0.12mi
8836 Villa View Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$1,622	$1.51	0d	2	0.13mi
8836 Villa View Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$1,639	$1.52	4d	3	0.13mi
9000 Avenue Pointe Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,614	$1.42	0d	17	0.17mi
15050 Ember Springs Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1066	$1,463	$1.37	0d	29	0.60mi
14501 Gateway Point Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$1,519	$1.48	0d	19	1.01mi
2951 Mallory Cir Kissimmee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,559	$1.65	3d	20	1.01mi
6029 W Irlo Bronson Memorial Hwy Kissimmee, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,495	$2.14	0d	150	1.14mi
3034 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,400	$1.75	4d	1	1.27mi
3034 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0	1.0	661	$1,450	$2.19	25d	2	1.27mi
3038 Parkway Blvd #302 Kissimmee, FL	1.0	1.0	661	$1,450	$2.19	22d	1	1.29mi
3036 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,450	$1.81	19d	2	1.29mi
3100 Parkway Blvd #315 Kissimmee, FL	1.0	1.0	648	$2,000	$3.09	9d	1	1.33mi
3032 Parkway Blvd #307 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,600	$1.71	9d	1	1.33mi
3004 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	964	$1,600	$1.66	6d	3	1.34mi
3004 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,675	$1.79	25d	2	1.34mi
3004 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,648	$1.76	16d	3	1.34mi
3028 Parkway Blvd #108 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,495	$1.60	0d	1	1.35mi
3100 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	641	$1,700	$2.65	25d	2	1.37mi
3016 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,470	$1.57	12d	2	1.37mi
3016 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,532	$1.64	25d	2	1.37mi
3012 Parkway Blvd #206 Kissimmee, FL	1.0	1.0	661	$1,375	$2.08	25d	1	1.40mi
3020 Parkway Blvd #303 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,600	$1.71	25d	1	1.40mi
3024 Parkway Blvd #207 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	25d	1	1.42mi
3024 Parkway Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	830	$1,500	$1.81	5d	2	1.42mi
201 Longview Ave Unit 1101 Celebration, FL	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,799	$1.60	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $1,600
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $200,000 Active
18. 2016-03-09
    soldstatus $95,000
19. 2012-05-25
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,003 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,003 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,003
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Buena Vista

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #4706

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,161
• Household income: $69,348
• Rent vs Own: 68.3% rent · 31.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1840.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 11% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Current HPI: 300.2268
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.20%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed for Rent $1,600 STELLARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,003 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.