949B Liverpool Cir

Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$286,999D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,930/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax + insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$438
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-755/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $80,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $287k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-755/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (3.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $287k).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $287k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?