949B Liverpool Cir · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$286,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · Condo public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1985 $208/sqft · at area comps Est $289k · at est. $438/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good location. Sit outside in your enclosed porch and have your morning coffee. LVW offers many amenities such as 2 pools, golf course,tennis, many clubs. Close to shopping, restaurants, and easy access to Routes 70 and 37 and Garden State Parkway.

Key facts

• Tennis
• 2 pools
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED PORCH
• 2 POOLS
• GOLF COURSE
• TENNIS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $287k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-580/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (3.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $287k).
• Recommended offer: $261k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $287k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,169 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,799
• List price: $286,999
• Delta: -0.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-49,300
• Equity at exit: $42,792

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-45,730
• Equity at exit: $24,814

Cash invested: $80,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,949 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,783/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$438
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,010

Max offer price $278,455

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $33	+0% $-48	+5% $-130	+10% $-211
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-165	+0% $-48	+5% $68	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $25	base $-48	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,750
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	22d	1	0.38mi
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1508	$3,100	$2.06	3d	1	0.44mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	2d	3	0.70mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	44d	1	0.83mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	2d	6	0.92mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	2d	1	0.95mi
1008 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1656	$3,400	$2.05	2d	1	1.15mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	44d	1	1.23mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	44d	1	1.25mi
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	2d	1	1.31mi
52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.5	1848	$3,275	$1.77	44d	1	1.38mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $438 · $5,256/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $286,999 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $286,999 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $286,999 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $286,999 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $286,999 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $286,999 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $286,999 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $286,999 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $286,999 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $286,999 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $286,999 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $286,999 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $286,999 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    price $294,950 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Good location. Sit outside in your enclosed porch and have your morning coffee. LVW offers many amenities such as 2 pools, golf course,tennis, many clubs. Close to shopping, restaurants, and easy access to Routes 70 and 37 and Garden State Parkway.

15. 2026-03-19
    listed $294,500 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Good location. Sit outside in your enclosed porch and have your morning coffee. LVW offers many amenities such as 2 pools, golf course,tennis, many clubs. Close to shopping, restaurants, and easy access to Routes 70 and 37 and Garden State Parkway.

16. 2017-08-18
    soldstatus $126,500
17. 1997-09-30
    soldstatus $94,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,465 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,682/yr (+$140/mo · 44.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$3,783
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,831
• − Management: −$2,831
• − HOA: −$5,256
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$5,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+213.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $294,950 MOMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $294,500 MOMLS
• 2017-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $126,500 Public Records
• 1997-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,783 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.