4623 61st Dr E

Samoset, FL 34203

$419,900D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,290 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,475/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$158
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$730
• Net cashflow: $-51/mo
• Annual: $-617/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $117,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-617/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $411k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (17.2% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $347k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#645 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.3% in Samoset — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,475/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1469% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.