4623 61st Dr E · Samoset, FL 34203

$419,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2005 9,919 sqft lot Est $522k · 20% under $158/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 4-bedroom, 3 full bath home is located in the highly sought-after gated community of Mandalay and offers 2,290 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Inside, the home features a spacious open floorplan with soaring high ceilings and transom windows that fill the living areas with natural light. Ceramic tile flooring flows throughout the main living spaces, complemented by formal living and family rooms that create the perfect setting for entertaining or everyday living. Decorative touches throughout the home add warmth and character, while the 3-car garage provides ample storage and convenience. Step outside to enjoy the private backyard, offering a relaxing retrea

Key facts

• Gated community
• Private backyard
• Open floorplan

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Sunstate Management; HOA fees required — $475 quarterly (about $158.33 per month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built using residential construction methods
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.23 acres (70 x 142)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Kitchen and family room combined; Open floor plan; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-617/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $411k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $347k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.3% in Samoset — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#645 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,475/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1469% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,492 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $522,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4630 61st Dr E	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,290 (0%)	8mo	$440,000	$192	91
6214 45th Ln E	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,401 (+5%)	0mo	$505,000	$210	76
5011 60th Dr E	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,288 (-0%)	8mo	$536,000	$234	74
4227 61st Ave E	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,009 (-12%)	0mo	$449,000	$223	58
6266 Mesa Gln	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,397 (+5%)	5mo	$771,500	$322	58
6255 Plateau Ct	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,397 (+5%)	8mo	$685,000	$286	56
4806 Lake Breeze Ter	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,222 (-3%)	7mo	$560,000	$252	55
6290 Mesa Gln	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,397 (+5%)	7mo	$735,000	$307	54
5513 47th Ct E	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,996 (-13%)	1mo	$370,000	$185	54
6005 Cedarwood Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,212 (-3%)	6mo	$400,000	$181	51
3808 Maplewood Ter	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,180 (-5%)	6mo	$440,000	$202	51
4134 63rd Ter E	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,008 (-12%)	8mo	$457,000	$228	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-81,511
• Equity at exit: $62,608

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-114,598
• Equity at exit: $36,305

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,139/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$158
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$730
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,540

Max offer price $410,822

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6188 46th St E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2330	$3,995	$1.71	16d	1	0.29mi
5011 58th Ter E Bradenton, FL	5.0	2.5	2516	$3,400	$1.35	10d	1	0.35mi
6222 45th Ln E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2311	$2,800	$1.21	23d	1	0.37mi
4103 61st Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2287	$2,750	$1.20	23d	1	0.45mi
6289 Mesa Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2406	$4,750	$1.97	10d	1	0.62mi
5419 Summit Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.5	1987	$8,000	$4.03	23d	1	0.84mi
5534 Spanish Moss Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,500	$1.46	14d	1	0.85mi
5534 Spanish Moss Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,500	$1.47	23d	1	0.85mi
5429 Spanish Moss Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2046	$2,600	$1.27	14d	1	0.88mi
6141 36th Ln E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,800	$1.44	16d	1	0.89mi
3601 Garden Lakes Clenet Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$3,000	$1.67	16d	1	0.91mi
4414 67th Avenue Cir E Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.5	3048	$4,995	$1.64	3d	1	1.08mi
4414 67th Avenue Cir E Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.5	3048	$4,995	$1.64	1d	1	1.08mi
6615 35th Ct E Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.0	2065	$3,250	$1.57	23d	1	1.29mi
5631 29th St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1868	$3,995	$2.14	23d	1	1.46mi
5847 28th Ln E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,700	$1.42	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $158 · $1,896/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $419,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $419,900 Active
16. 2006-10-03
    historical
17. 2006-08-01
    soldstatus $425,000
18. 2006-05-01
    listed $429,997
19. 2006-05-01
    listed $449,997
20. 2006-02-20
    listed $499,997
21. 2006-02-20
    listed $469,997
22. 2004-10-15
    soldstatus $1,190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,139 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,485 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$3,139
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,336
• − Management: −$3,336
• − HOA: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable loss: −$7,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,883
• After-tax cash flow: $1,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Samoset

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #12763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-64.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $419,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-01 Listed $449,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-01 Listed $429,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-20 Listed $469,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-20 Listed $499,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $1,190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,139 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.