2531 Windsor Village Dr

Centerville, OH 45342

$204,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,601/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$465
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-274/mo
• Annual: $-3,293/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.74%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $57,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in OH, #604 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Miamisburg City (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #338 of 656 in OH (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bauer Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #590 of 1,584 statewide, top 41%, 392 students, 48% FRL); Miamisburg Middle School (math 53% / reading 58%, grade B-, #321 of 654 statewide, top 51%, 1,160 students, 44% FRL); Miamisburg High School (math 34% / reading 73%, grade C-, #334 of 781 statewide, top 43%, 1,557 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.