49 Clay Hill Rd

North Hartland, VT 05048

$149,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Built 1997 · Other · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $-247/mo
• Annual: $-2,963/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#53 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.