49 Clay Hill Rd · North Hartland, VT 05048

$149,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Other public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1997 1.76 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Partially finished circa 1998 26' x 24' ranch house on 2 lots totalling 1.76+/- acres. This fixer-upper has been lived in year round since its construction but never fully finished. The space consists of a kitchen that opens into a single main room being used as a living room, bedroom and dining area. Both the interior and exterior wall surfaces need finishing in places. The interior needs drywall, finished flooring, and all cosmetics. The bathroom is functional but the vanity has never been plumbed into water and waste lines. Previously there was an interior stairway to the partial basement but it was removed. Access to the dry basement is now an at-grade walkout entry. The basement is partially full height and part crawlspace. The basement is unfinished. Heat is provided by a wood pellet stove only that vents into a tile-lined masonry chimney and there is currently no central heat. The drilled well is new and the engineered septic system date to 1998. There are a few sheds on the property that contain building supplies and tools and other treasures. The property is being offered with the house broom clean but all personal property, both good and bad, on the exterior to remain for the new owner. The property is being offered in "as-is" condition. This property will require either a cash buyer or a substantial rehab loan.

Key facts

• 1.76 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 149 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#53 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $98,815 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $65,435
• Equity at exit: $134,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $205,092
• Equity at exit: $289,474

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05048

• Home prices YoY: 21.1%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,209/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,301

Max offer price $105,378

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-205	+0% $-247	+5% $-289	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-325	-5% $-286	+0% $-247	+5% $-208	+10% $-169
Rate	-1.0pp $-172	-0.5pp $-209	base $-247	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-02-27
    price $149,000 1353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1353 chars)

    Partially finished circa 1998 26' x 24' ranch house on 2 lots totalling 1.76+/- acres. This fixer-upper has been lived in year round since its construction but never fully finished. The space consists of a kitchen that opens into a single main room being used as a living room, bedroom and dining area. Both the interior and exterior wall surfaces need finishing in places. The interior needs drywall, finished flooring, and all cosmetics. The bathroom is functional but the vanity has never been plumbed into water and waste lines. Previously there was an interior stairway to the partial basement but it was removed. Access to the dry basement is now an at-grade walkout entry. The basement is partially full height and part crawlspace. The basement is unfinished. Heat is provided by a wood pellet stove only that vents into a tile-lined masonry chimney and there is currently no central heat. The drilled well is new and the engineered septic system date to 1998. There are a few sheds on the property that contain building supplies and tools and other treasures. The property is being offered with the house broom clean but all personal property, both good and bad, on the exterior to remain for the new owner. The property is being offered in "as-is" condition. This property will require either a cash buyer or a substantial rehab loan.

18. 2026-01-19
    listed $169,000 Active 1353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1353 chars)

    Partially finished circa 1998 26' x 24' ranch house on 2 lots totalling 1.76+/- acres. This fixer-upper has been lived in year round since its construction but never fully finished. The space consists of a kitchen that opens into a single main room being used as a living room, bedroom and dining area. Both the interior and exterior wall surfaces need finishing in places. The interior needs drywall, finished flooring, and all cosmetics. The bathroom is functional but the vanity has never been plumbed into water and waste lines. Previously there was an interior stairway to the partial basement but it was removed. Access to the dry basement is now an at-grade walkout entry. The basement is partially full height and part crawlspace. The basement is unfinished. Heat is provided by a wood pellet stove only that vents into a tile-lined masonry chimney and there is currently no central heat. The drilled well is new and the engineered septic system date to 1998. There are a few sheds on the property that contain building supplies and tools and other treasures. The property is being offered with the house broom clean but all personal property, both good and bad, on the exterior to remain for the new owner. The property is being offered in "as-is" condition. This property will require either a cash buyer or a substantial rehab loan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,209 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,520 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$311/yr (+$26/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,209
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$5,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — North Hartland

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #12276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Hartland, VT
• City population: 415
• Population (ZIP): 2,494

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 63.36%
• Current HPI: 364.2419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $149,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $169,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,209 · +26.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.